Every year at the Scientific Sessions, ADA's President gives a keynote address. This year Dr. Robert Rizza from the Mayo clinic talked about the impact of finding a cure for diabetes and treating diabetes as appropriately as possible.
He titled his address "Cure, Care, and Commitment" and it was really a dramatic demonstration of the imapct of diabetes in America if not the whole world. Insofar as a cure is concerned, he discussed the impact if we found a cure for diabetes today - that is, everyone with diabetes doesn't have it anymore; those who are just about to get diabetes do not; and children born tomorrow would never see the disease.
Using results from a recent study he conducted with a phenomenal computer-based mathematical model called Archimedes, Dr. Rizza showed the impact of different diabetes scenarios. As he pointed out in his address, Archimedes is extremely complete and robust. Basically it is a virtual healthcare system - virtual patients getting virtual symtoms, visiting virtual doctors, getting virtual tests and procedures. Some of the virtual patients have adverse outcomes and have to go to virtual hospitals. It's sort of a SIM City for healthcare. To show its accuracy, Archimedes has been trial-validated, meaning it has predicted results of clinical trials without using any of the trial findings.
Using Archimedes, Dr. Rizza showed that if diabetes were cured today there would be a dramatic reduction in a wide variety of adverse consequences associated with diabetes. It would reduce the number of such serious life-changing complications by 1.4 million per year.
While it's nice to consider, and a cure for diabetes is obviously the longer-term goal, Dr. Rizza asked "what if we in the medical community committed ourselves to achieving every single ADA goal in all of our patients?" Every patient would have an A1C less than 7, a blood pressure less than 130/80, and LDL less than 100, etc. If everyone were like that, what would be the impact? Archimedes tells us that the impact would be tremendous - 8 million fewer heart attacks, 1.6 million fewer strokes, 2.2 million fewer episodes of kidney failure, 2.4 fewer cases of blindness or eye surgery, 100,000 fewer amputations and 3.5 million fewer deaths resulting in 18 million fewer life-changing serious diabetes complications during the next 30 years – and a savings of over $325 billion in medical care costs.
Of course it may not be feasible to get 100% of diabetes patients to goal. What if we had 80% at goal. Here too, Dr. Rizza showed the numbers are dramatic. Even this more feasible goal would have a tremendous effect on healthcare. Of course bringing patients down to these goals - more drugs, an extra office visit, more supplies, etc - comes with additional costs. But extra expense is offset by the savings seen through the reduction of complications.
Lastly, Dr. Rizza proposed a simple approach. Give everyone metformin, a low-dose aspirin, an LDL-lowering statin and a ACE-inhibitor to lower blood pressure. This "poly-pill" would cost $100-$200 per year per patient. Just giving this treatment to every person with diabetes would save the US healthcare system an enormous amount of money and would have a dramatic effect on complications. The risk of heart attacks during the next 30 years would be reduced by 50%, renal failure by 4%, blindness and eye surgery by 33%, and total serious diabetes complications by 35%.
Before nearly 8,000 medical professionals and researchers, Dr. Rizza produced thunderous applause by dramatically showing that if we spend time, money and energy to prevent the complications rather than focusing on treating them, you save a lot of money and of course save lives and prevent suffering. It was a tremendous talk and its message resonated well with the entire audience.